Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.