Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
