Daily Killings in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Data

The mean figure of everyday homicides monthly in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative data. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have cautioned that homicide figures may not point to improved countrywide stability.

Notable Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in last November compared with almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the director of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had in these months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the least figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the government’s highly military operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced drop in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central components of the President's security strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

But, security experts warned that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is notably true considering the rise in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer valid for estimating the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was also concerning because it might hide days when there were especially elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average renders spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were detained between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, per government figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

But in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to express their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.